I recently wrote a piece that argued there is an anti-winner bias in polling. For races expected to be competitive, I noted that the predicted poll margin underestimated the actual vote share for the winner. I’ve thought more about this issue and talked with some people about it (including the […] Read more »
What if election polls are biased against winners?
It seems like every election, some observers suggest that the polls are biased against one party. They’re often wrong. In 2012, many thought the polls were biased against Republicans, but they ended up being biased against Democrats. In 2014, many argued that the polls could be biased against Democrats, but […] Read more »
Microsoft Makes Its Audience Polling Service Bing Pulse Available To Anyone
Microsoft is expanding its audience polling tool Bing Pulse today — Josh Gottheimer, general manager of corporate strategy, told me that it’s moving from a model of one-off partnerships to self-service. So basically anyone can now use Bing Pulse at their events and meetings. CONT. Anthony Ha, TechCrunch Read more »
The Drilldown: Explore five years of UK polling
The British electorate is the most heavily polled in the world, our transparency rules are the most exacting and yet we use just a fraction of the data. The interactive database we are launching today on May2015.com is designed to change that picture. For the first time, we are putting […] Read more »
Sharing Polling Numbers on Twitter: Decoding a Mystery
Perhaps the most bizarre electoral news since the midterms is the allegation that Republican operatives and outside groups used clandestine Twitter accounts to share polling data. The Twitter accounts, which had no followers, tweeted polling results for House races in what might have been an effort to circumvent laws that […] Read more »
Exploring Online Non-Probability Sampling
SurveyMonkey … today announced plans to examine non-probability sampling and potential frameworks for measurement and evaluation with Westat, an employee-owned research corporation, and Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization. Results from the collaboration will be made publicly available. CONT. SurveyMonkey via PR Newswire Read more »