It seems like every election, some observers suggest that the polls are biased against one party. They’re often wrong. In 2012, many thought the polls were biased against Republicans, but they ended up being biased against Democrats. In 2014, many argued that the polls could be biased against Democrats, but they were biased against Republicans instead. Some years there has been no bias. Faced with these results, the bias seems unpredictable.
But the bias may not be quite so random. Instead, we may be looking at the problem the wrong way. The polls might not biased against one party so much as against the ultimate winner, and in a subtle way that makes this bias a little hard to see. CONT.
Eric McGhee, The Monkey Cage