A series of recent high-profile misses by election polls in several countries has sent the worldwide polling industry into one of its moments of doubt and self-examination. … Although each of these misses can be explained, and polling in multiparty parliamentary elections is more fraught with challenges than America’s mostly […] Read more »
The Field Is Flat
The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory—pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever’s turn it is. While nomination trial-heat polling tells us very little this early, there are some poll questions […] Read more »
SurveyMonkey Was The Other Winner Of The U.K. Election
To more than one pundit, last week’s election in the United Kingdom looked like it would be the closest in a generation. But at SurveyMonkey’s Palo Alto, California, headquarters, thousands of miles away, things looked very different: Respondents to an online poll conducted by the Internet survey company from April […] Read more »
The failure of the polls in Britain
… So where did our cousins go wrong? First, I believe they were operating on the wrong level of analysis. Their data were on one level and what they were trying to predict was on another. The polls were looking at the percentage of the national vote each party was […] Read more »
Jeb Bush: ‘Take a chill pill on the polls’
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) says political watchers who are already wrapped up in the horse race aspect of the Republican presidential nomination need to “take a chill pill.” In a half-hour sit-down interview with Megyn Kelly that aired on Fox News Channel on Monday night, Kelly told Bush […] Read more »
UK: We got it wrong. Why?
… We got the election wrong. So did the other ten polling companies who produced eve-of-election voting intentions: we all said the race was too-close-to-call. Only by admitting that we are all at fault can we start the journey to finding out why. That journey’s first stop is 1992. CONT. […] Read more »