Only 10 of the 16 Republican presidential candidates will be allowed into the first debate, on Aug. 6. Fox News, which is hosting the debate, will winnow the list using an average of the five most recent major national polls. The list above represents our estimate of the current ranking, […] Read more »
The challenges of polling when fewer people are available to be polled
… Cliff Zukin, past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and a Rutgers University political science professor, wrote recently that “two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer […] Read more »
Why is Trump surging? Blame the media.
Donald Trump’s surge to the front of the GOP presidential polls has occasioned not a little media attention and endless speculation as to why. You can disregard most of that speculation. The answer is simple: Trump is surging in the polls because the news media has consistently focused on him […] Read more »
Why polls can’t be trusted anymore
“I don’t believe the polls” is an almost mandatory declaration for candidates who think they’re behind. But, as another campaign season heats up, the rest of us, too, might be wise to view polls with increased skepticism. CONT. Editorial Board, Star Tribune Read more »
The numbers don’t lie, except when they do
The media has been fixating on Donald Trump’s surprising “surge” in the polls. But the real story, according to Bob, is more predictable: the media’s sloppy and disingenuous use of polls to fill air time and manufacture conflict. On The Media Read more »
Taking Stock: The Political Environment in the Summer Before an Open-Seat Election
In July 2007, as candidates on both sides of the political aisle jockeyed for position in the forthcoming open-seat presidential election, the Republican Party was facing an election environment headlined by a president from their party with a 29% job approval rating. Today, 16 months before the 2016 open-seat presidential […] Read more »