Republicans have three ways to make the cut for the main stage of their fifth presidential primary debate, sponsor CNN announced Thursday. Candidates must meet one of three criteria in polls conducted between October 29 and December 13 and recognized by CNN: An average of at least 3.5% nationally; at […] Read more »
Sanders campaign: ‘Very Encouraging’ News for Sanders in Polls
Recent polls for major news organizations contained “very encouraging news” for Sen. Bernie Sanders and warning signs on Hillary Clinton’s general election prospects should she win the nomination, according to a memorandum by polling and strategic consulting expert Ben Tulchin. Significantly, Sanders fares better than Clinton in many head-to-head matchups […] Read more »
Two very different views of the 2016 GOP primary
During elections, polling companies create a multitude of snapshots of how potential voters would vote if the election were held that day. But, the U.S. does not call snap elections; the first votes will not be cast for 75 days. And those people who answer polls are not necessarily the […] Read more »
Iowa’s Ann Selzer on what journalists need to know about polling
… Ann Selzer, director of the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll, has been in the field for nearly three decades, beginning as an in-house pollster at the Register in the 1980s before launching her own public-opinion firm in the early ’90s. … Selzer spoke by phone with CJR from […] Read more »
Pollsters: The media are ruining our industry
Pollsters have a message for the media: Please stop bad reporting on polls, and please stop reporting on bad polls. At a POLITICO event Thursday morning on the future of polling and the New American Electorate, pollsters made it clear polling was getting tougher. But the media’s intense desire for […] Read more »
The Benefits of Random Probability Sampling: The 2015 British Election Study Face-to-Face
This post reveals the BES 2015 vote intention figures for the face-to-face survey and discusses them in the context of representativeness achieved via random probability sampling and efforts to interview hard-to-reach respondents. … Unlike almost every other pre- and post-election survey (including our own internet panel), the reported vote in […] Read more »