We’ve warned before against taking general election polls too seriously, too early. In fact, earlier this year we worked with our colleagues at the data news site FiveThirtyEight to produce Part 1 of an Election Polls Breaking News Consumer’s Handbook. But with Election Day drawing closer, and growing skepticism over […] Read more »
Live Polls And Online Polls Tell Different Stories About The Election
… When we launched our general election forecasts in late June, there wasn’t a big difference in the results we were getting from polls using traditional methodologies and polls using newer techniques. Now, it’s pretty clear that Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is wider in live-telephone surveys than it […] Read more »
It’s Too Soon For Clinton To Run Out The Clock
Last week, Politico reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was set to employ a “run out the clock” strategy, declining to respond to recurring controversies even at the risk of seeming nonresponsive. In the abstract, such a strategy could make sense. Clinton has a fairly clear lead in the polls. There […] Read more »
Future of Times-CBS News poll is up in the air
The future of The New York Times–CBS News poll, one of America’s oldest and most influential public opinion polls, is up in the air. At issue is the departure, after the 2016 election, of the Times’ remaining veteran pollsters who worked with CBS. CONT. Joe Pompeo, Politico Read more »
The Age of Post-Truth Politics
… It is possible to live in a world of data but no facts. Think of how we employ weather forecasts: We understand that it is not a fact that it will be 75 degrees on Thursday, and that figure will fluctuate all the time. Weather forecasting works in a […] Read more »
Per his campaign manager, Donald Trump is relying on easily frightened voters who might not vote
… In an interview with the Britain’s Channel 4 reported by the Guardian, Donald Trump’s still relatively new campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, offered her explanation for why polling that shows Trump trailing badly is wrong — and why she’s convinced that the campaign will nonetheless win. Her explanations did not […] Read more »