On Sept. 5, Russia’s Justice Ministry declared the country’s leading independent polling organization, the Levada Analytical Center, to be a “foreign agent.” … The Levada Center has generated a remarkable trove of information about Russia’s society, politics, and economy over the past quarter century. Its high-quality work inspired us to […] Read more »
Rock ‘n Poll: Polls explained with interactive graphics
Politicians as well as journalists take political polls very seriously. Losses and gains of a few percentage points are overly analysed and commented on. This interactive explanation shows you why polling results should be taken with a grain of salt. In a lot of cases decimals will prove to be […] Read more »
What AP learned about using online surveys to measure support for presidential candidates
… The AP earlier this year commissioned an experiment to see if an online, probability-based survey could estimate candidate support among both advance and Election Day voters more accurately than the combined exit poll of Election Day voters and telephone poll of advance voters. That’s the dual, and increasingly costly, […] Read more »
Independent Voters Are Overrated
Some election watchers treat independent voters like the golden key to open up Star World in “Super Mario World.” If you know who is winning independents, the thinking goes, then you know who is going to win the election. There’s an appealing simplicity to the logic of this: If Democrats […] Read more »
As Clinton-Trump Race Tightens, Here’s How Forecast Models Differ
Over the past three weeks, Hillary Clinton’s chances to win the presidency have fallen. Her lead over Donald J. Trump has shrunk to between one and four percentage points nationwide, depending on which polls you count, and which candidates are included. … In The Upshot’s model, Mrs. Clinton’s chances to […] Read more »
Why Clinton’s narrow lead is bigger than it looks
… Big swings in polls get the big headlines because they imply big changes in a race. But over the past three-and-a-half decades, I’ve grown skeptical of big swings in polls at this late date, and I’ve seen only modest changes in voting behavior in presidential elections. It isn’t that […] Read more »