The 2016 US election forecasting field was mostly divided up between the political science modelers, pollsters and poll aggregators. Pollsters and poll aggregators use national and state-level vote intention polls to make their forecasts, and are continually updating their forecasts until Election Day. The political science modelers apply theory and […] Read more »
Why the polls missed in 2016: Was it shy Trump supporters after all?
Following the unexpected victory of Donald Trump, the American Association for Public Opinion Research announced, “The polls clearly got it wrong … and already the chorus of concerns about a ‘crisis in polling’ have emerged.” Many forecasts based on polls were indeed wrong, but a closer look leaves us more […] Read more »
How much time might President Trump spend above 50 percent approval?
One of the more remarkable incongruities in American politics is that the United States elected Donald Trump (who ran specifically against the legacy of President Obama) to succeed Obama (who is nearing a 60 percent approval rating). America thinks Obama is doing a great job — and would like the […] Read more »
The Comey effect
… In mid-October, I said I didn’t think Trump would clear 240 electoral votes, a statement I paid for later by eating a bug on CNN. My error seems to be accounted for by two events: (1) undecided Republican voters coming home, and (2) FBI Director Jim Comey’s letter to […] Read more »
It’s Not All About Clinton — The Midwest Was Getting Redder Before 2016
Here’s one of the biggest questions Democrats face in the wake of Hillary Clinton’s loss: Did Clinton have an Electoral College problem or does the Democratic Party have an Electoral College problem? CONT. Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Field Poll shutting down at end of year
The Field Poll, which for nearly 70 years has tracked the opinions of Californians, announced today it’s shutting down in early 2017. The poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, a groundbreaking pollster who died last year. “It is with great sadness that I must […] Read more »