Sunday’s French presidential election was the latest in a trend. The centrist candidate, Emmanuel Macron, won by a considerably wider margin than most observers predicted, with a 32-percentage-point landslide over Marine Le Pen, larger than the 24-point margin that the final polls showed. But the trend isn’t that center-left globalism […] Read more »
Macron Won, But The French Polls Were Way Off
Emmanuel Macron’s 32-percentage-point victory in France’s presidential election runoff may end up being touted as a triumph for French pollsters, who consistently gave him a huge advantage. But it shouldn’t be. The polls leading up to the contest between the centrist Macron and his far-right opponent were the least predictive […] Read more »
A 2016 Review: There’s Reason to Be Skeptical of a Comey Effect
On Friday, Oct. 28, James B. Comey, the F.B.I. director, sent a letter to Congress about new evidence in the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. Politicians, analysts and journalists are still debating whether the letter cost Mrs. Clinton the presidency. It’s certainly possible. But I am not at all sure, […] Read more »
Trump’s Underwater Approval Ratings
President Donald Trump passed the 100-day mark in office last week. While the West Wing staff tried furiously to spin his executive pronouncements as a demonstration that he has kept his campaign promises, he can so far boast of zero legislative accomplishments of note. Worse, no prospective legislative victories are […] Read more »
These recent elections show that polling isn’t, and never was, broken
Global financial markets and European Union leaders heaved a sigh of relief after the first round of the French presidential election last month. And so did professional pollsters. It turns out the polls were not broken in France, as they were said to have been in the American presidential election […] Read more »
Pollsters Find ‘At Best Mixed Evidence’ Comey Letter Swayed Election
FBI Director James Comey said this week that he is “mildly nauseous” at the idea that the FBI may have swayed the presidential election results. A new report may ease that nausea, if only a little. “We would conclude there is at best mixed evidence to suggest that the FBI […] Read more »