Predicting 2016 State Presidential Election Results with a National Tracking Poll and MRP

Donald Trump’s widely unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has raised questions about the accuracy of public opinion polling, the aggregation of polling into probabilistic election forecasts and the interpretation of election polling by data analysts, journalists and the general public. While national-level polls on average proved as […] Read more »

New polling shows a sharp increase in skepticism about Trump’s relationship to Russia

… Monmouth was in the field (that is, interviewing poll respondents) for a survey as news broke on Monday night that President Trump had revealed classified information in an Oval Office conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They’d started polling on Saturday night and continued the polling through Wednesday […] Read more »