Donald Trump’s widely unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election has raised questions about the accuracy of public opinion polling, the aggregation of polling into probabilistic election forecasts and the interpretation of election polling by data analysts, journalists and the general public. While national-level polls on average proved as […] Read more »
Support for health care law higher when polls mention ‘repeal’
With the U.S. Senate set to take up debate on a new health care bill, Cornell researchers asked a simple question. Does the American public want former President Barack Obama’s health care law repealed and replaced? The answer is, it depends on how you ask the question. CONT. Susan Kelley, […] Read more »
Mary Ellen Colten, 68, director of Center for Survey Research at UMass Boston
With each project Mary Ellen Colten guided during her more than three decades directing the Center for Survey Research at the University of Massachusetts Boston, she kept sight of both the work at hand and how it might affect all research work in the future. CONT. Bryan Marquard, Boston Globe Read more »
New polling shows a sharp increase in skepticism about Trump’s relationship to Russia
… Monmouth was in the field (that is, interviewing poll respondents) for a survey as news broke on Monday night that President Trump had revealed classified information in an Oval Office conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. They’d started polling on Saturday night and continued the polling through Wednesday […] Read more »
Holding the base
An oft repeated talking point holds that Donald Trump’s supporters remain firm in backing the president. It’s neither as true, nor as electorally important, as it sounds. CONT. Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill Read more »
What Low Response Rates Mean for Telephone Surveys
A new study from Pew Research Center suggests that, after decades of consistent decline, U.S. telephone survey response rates have plateaued over the past four years. And contrary to the current narrative that polls are under siege, the data show that the bias introduced into survey data by current levels […] Read more »