Final polls show Democrat Ralph Northam holding a slight edge over Republican Ed Gillespie before Tuesday’s election for governor of Virginia. But a lot of uncertainty remains, especially given the typically low turnout in off-year elections and recent poll misfires in Virginia. Polls significantly underestimated Republican candidates in the 2013 […] Read more »
Please Don’t Call It a Push Poll: Transgender Edition
Danica Roem and Bob Marshall are facing off in an unusually high-profile race for the Virginia House of Delegates — Roem, a transgender Democrat, is challenging Marshall, a conservative Republican. The race reached a new level in the final weeks when allegations of a so-called push poll came to light. […] Read more »
Poll Hub: It’s All in the Wording
In this episode of Poll Hub, the team does something they have never done before – calling out poor question wording. CONT. Marist Poll Read more »
When Should We Start Paying Attention to the Congressional Generic Ballot Test?
For years, the best tool to predict which party will gain House seats in any given election has been the so-called “generic ballot test.” The “generic” is a poll question that asks voters which party they’d support in the upcoming congressional election. While it can’t tell us exactly how many […] Read more »
Fox News is trying to reinvent the exit poll
When covering Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and the Associated Press will share the same exit poll data, as they have on every Election Day since forming a consortium called the National Election Pool in 2003. But Fox News, a member of the […] Read more »
Polling techniques may account for erratic predictions in Virginia
At first blush, polling in Virginia’s closely watched race for governor looks all over the map, from a 17-point lead for Democrat Ralph Northam to an 8-point advantage for Republican Ed Gillespie. But what might appear to be a breakdown in pollster reliability may have a much simpler explanation: Not […] Read more »