The latest Marist Poll has President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 42%, his highest approval rating since taking office. In this week’s edition of Poll Hub, the crew provides an in-depth look at the factors driving the president’s improved standing and responds to the critiques of the poll’s methodology. Plus, […] Read more »
News Changes Fast, but Polls Keep Snapping Back Into Place
There are still 243 days until the midterm elections. There’s plenty of time for events to reshape the race for control of Congress. But despite plenty of developments over the previous 243 days — with seemingly endless mobile news alerts and presidential tweets — it is hard to say that […] Read more »
The margin of error is bigger than you think
… A new study led by Houshmand Shirani-Mehr and Sharad Goel, assistant professor of management science and engineering, finds that the actual error rates of polls are about twice as high as their reported “margin of error.” CONT. Edmund L. Andrews, Stanford Engineering Magazine Read more »
Politics Podcast: Does Trump’s Mood Matter?
The Trump administration is coming off of a week of (seemingly) ad hoc policy announcements and a high-profile staff departure. So the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses how the Trump administration makes decisions and whether we learned anything from the past week. FiveThirtyEight’s Perry Bacon Jr. joins the crew to […] Read more »
Poll Hub: High on the Hooey
Why using the theory of social desirability to explain variance in poll results is a flawed argument. Marist Poll Read more »
How Trump’s campaign may have offloaded spending on polling to a nonprofit
… America First Policies does a lot of polling, which CNBC stumbled across by following a link on the group’s website. … “America First Policies, which actively advocates for policies favored by Trump, denied that any of the documents, many of which are labeled ‘confidential,’ were intended to benefit the […] Read more »