The state’s only polling institute is among the casualties as Castleton University seeks to address a $1.5 million budget gap. … In an interview with VPR, Castleton President Karen Scolforo said the Polling Institute was costing the university $120,000 a year to run. The institute partnered with media organizations including […] Read more »
Maybe Election Polls Aren’t Broken After All
NO MATTER WHERE you situate yourself on the political spectrum, don’t try to deny that the 2016 US presidential election made you go “whaaaaaaat?” This isn’t a judgment; if you believe Michael Wolff’s book, even Donald Trump didn’t think Donald Trump was going to be president. Partially that’s because of […] Read more »
Announcing Civiqs: the coolest thing I’ve helped build since Daily Kos
Hey everyone, remember how polling sucks and you can’t trust it anymore because no one answers polls these days and you have a plethora of sketchy outfits spitting out garbage numbers? Back in late 2012, Dr. Drew Linzer—one of the top political statisticians in the country—and I chatted about the […] Read more »
The Founder Of Daily Kos Just Launched A Massive New Polling Project
Markos Moulitsas is a singular success story of the new media business. After the Army and college, he founded the original, ultimate liberal group blog, Daily Kos in 2002, which has survived all competitors and is now basically the last of its kind. He co-founded the sports site SBNation in […] Read more »
Election polling errors across time and space
Are election polling misses becoming more prevalent? Are they more likely in some contexts than others? Here we undertake an over-time and cross-national assessment of prediction errors in pre-election polls. Our analysis draws on more than 30,000 national polls from 351 general elections in 45 countries between 1942 and 2017. […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The Most Special Special Election Yet
The special election on Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, in the western part of the state, will put Republicans to the test in a part of the country that President Trump has made central to his message. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses the candidates, expectations and political environment […] Read more »