Here are a few facts about what surveyed Americans claim to be facts: In a late 2017 poll, one in five survey respondents claimed that Donald Trump received more popular votes than did Hillary Clinton; about two in five said that the unemployment rate had risen during the Obama years; […] Read more »
How surprising was Trump’s victory? Evaluations of the 2016 U.S. presidential election and a new poll aggregation model
The U.S. presidential election results of 2016 surprised many poll-watchers, suggesting possible biases in estimated support for the major party candidates and posing a challenge for poll aggregation as a prediction tool. Using data from earlier elections and the 2016 campaign, we evaluated poll aggregation performance for the major prediction […] Read more »
Poll Hub: A Wave or a Ripple?
With five months to go until the congressional midterm elections, debate exists about whether or not the Democrats will create a blue wave. In this week’s Poll Hub, a look at the perceived schism within the Democratic Party. Are progressive candidates better positioned than moderate candidates to take on Republicans […] Read more »
Will new AP poll guidelines fix faulty poll problem?
There’s a buzz over at the Associated Press, which has just updated its AP Stylebook with a new chapter on how to report on polls. … But does the update actually address the faulty poll problem? CONT. David W. Moore, iMediaEthics Read more »
Election Night Shakeup: Here Come The New ‘Exit’ Polls
… The future of polling — and how to look out the front window instead of the back — was a major theme at the American Association of Public Opinion Research conference this past week in Denver. And one particular presentation stood out for its attempt to break the mold […] Read more »
Mark Penn, Ex-Clinton Aide, Dismisses Mueller Inquiry, and the Clintons Along With It
Mark J. Penn was one of the primary architects of President Bill Clinton’s re-election campaign in 1996 and served as chief strategist for Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2008. Few people have done more to advance the Clinton cause in the last couple of decades. Which makes it all the […] Read more »