This is the first piece of our series, Innovation in polling. In part 2: we discuss issues involved with Online Panels which are increasingly replacing RDD. In part 3: we discuss issues involved with Assisted Crowd Sourcing. In part 4: we introduce Random Device Engagement (that is what we do!). […] Read more »
‘The sky is not falling’: Two major studies show election polls are not getting less accurate
Donald Trump’s 2016 election and other surprising election results around the world in recent years set off alarms about a crisis in election polling. But two massive studies come to the opposite conclusion: Polls in recent elections are just about as accurate as they have been historically, if not a […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: A Conversation About Our Pollster Ratings
FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster ratings for the first time since before the 2016 presidential election. In this episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver discusses the state of polling in the U.S. and what to expect in 2018. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Poll Hub: Erasing the Racial Divide?
Roseanne Barr’s racially charged tweet this week brought race relations back into the headlines. In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the team takes a look at how attitudes about race differ from generation to generation and how those views have evolved over time. Then, the Associated Press revised the […] Read more »
Which Pollsters To Trust In 2018
As FiveThirtyEight has evolved over the past 10 years, we’ve taken an increasingly “macro” view of polling. By that, I mean: We’re more interested in how the polls are doing overall — and in broad trends within the polling industry — and less in how individual polls or pollsters are […] Read more »
The Polls Are All Right
With the 2018 midterm elections approaching, we’ve updated FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings for the first time since the 2016 presidential primaries. Based on how the media portrayed the polls after President Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton later that year, you might expect pollsters to get a pretty disastrous report card. But […] Read more »