Does an increase in attention from the media, like we’ve generally seen this cycle surrounding a presidential hopeful’s campaign launch, correspond with a boost in a candidate’s popularity in the polls? At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve looked at how much kickoff coverage candidates have gotten on the big three cable TV news […] Read more »
Census Showdown: The implications of including a citizenship question in the 2020 U.S. Census
The debate over the inclusion of a citizenship question in the 2020 U.S. Census is now before the U.S. Supreme Court. On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, we discuss the importance of the decision both politically and in the world of polling. Then, NPR’s Lead Political Editor Domenico Montanaro […] Read more »
Biden’s path to 2020 is strewn with cautionary tales
… Trying to think systematically about the role of the press in political coverage and reflecting on the 10 prior presidential campaigns that I have covered, I want to set down some of the lessons that have jumped out at me. I offer this list with hesitation and humility because […] Read more »
The Mueller Report, Partisan Survey Responsiveness, and Interpreting Public Opinion Polls
Political observers often expect major political events to have ramifications for public opinion. The recent release and aftermath of the Mueller Report introduced yet another one of these scenarios. Damaging findings against Donald Trump appeared destined to harm the president’s image. To many, this expectation materialized: in at least a […] Read more »
We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive.
Over the past few weeks, FiveThirtyEight has explored who led in early primary polls of presidential cycles from 1972 to 2016 and who went on to win the nomination. And what we’ve seen is that national surveys conducted in the year before a presidential primary are relatively good indicators of […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Can Win, But He Isn’t Polling Like A Favorite
If there’s one thing the Democratic establishment is good at, it’s panicking. And the latest reason for panic among Democratic insiders is Bernie Sanders. According to a New York Times article from earlier this month, the prospect of a Sanders nomination is “spooking establishment-aligned Democrats, some of whom are worried […] Read more »