As the Democrats debate tonight and tomorrow, many people — journalists included — will be watching two screens: on one, the debates themselves, and on the other, Twitter’s stream of hot takes. Recent reports remind us that Twitter does not mirror the world at large. Yet journalists’ reliance on it […] Read more »
It’s All About Name Recognition, Folks!
I was watching a news channel the other day when the resident pundit opined that polls show Joe Biden to be the most formidable Democrat against Donald Trump. “No! They do not. Stop saying that,” I shouted into the void. There is a great deal of nuance in what these […] Read more »
There’s no election polling makeover for 2020
Pollsters spent a lot of time figuring out why Donald Trump’s win was such a surprise in 2016 — but the reality is that there isn’t going to be a radical change in most election polling for 2020. Why it matters: Everyone should be more cautious in 2020 about what […] Read more »
Is 31 Biden’s Magic Number?
On this week’s mini-episode, Harry mines the historical archives to assess Joe Biden’s chances of holding on to his frontrunner position. The Forecast with Harry Enten Read more »
The Polling Industry Is in Crisis
… Why is polling in presidential nomination fights so unreliable? For one, no one knows who will vote. In Iowa, for instance, caucus turnout almost doubled from 2004 to 2008 (thank you, Barack Obama) and then dropped by more than a quarter in 2016. Second, a dwindling number of Americans […] Read more »
The Centennial: Poll Hub marks its 100th episode
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, our team celebrates a milestone – the podcast’s 100th episode – with a look back on some of our most memorable episodes. Take a journey back two years as the team reflects on its very first episode! We also share highlights from our […] Read more »