Earlier this year, we published a three-part series on how well primary polls conducted in the calendar year before a presidential election predict the outcome. Our analysis, which covered more than 40 years of primaries, found that early polls are somewhat predictive of who eventually wins the nomination, especially when […] Read more »
Why the ABC/WP Democratic Primary Poll Is an Outlier
After the second Democratic debate, several media organizations took polls to see how the candidates were faring. They all conducted their polls in the time frame of June 28-July 1. Three polls – ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and CNN – interviewed Democrats and independents leaning Democratic across the country. USA Today/Suffolk […] Read more »
What we can learn from the 2004 presidential race
Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race. An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority) […] Read more »
CNN debuts new polling standards as 2020 race heats up
Today, CNN is launching new standards for reporting on polling. These standards will serve to elevate research conducted by the most skilled pollsters and will make it easier for readers and viewers to understand what a poll says. The news is flooded with polls every election year. Those looking to […] Read more »
What we know after the first Democratic debate
In the wake of the first Democratic debates, polling anarchy has erupted. There have been six post-debate surveys. Three place support for Joe Biden, the putative leader of the pack, in the low 20s with other candidates nipping at his heels. Three others put him at 30 percent or above, […] Read more »
What to make of differing post-debate polls (Hint: It’s good news for Kamala Harris)
… Polling can sometimes make your head spin. Depending on which poll you looked at post-debate, you find Biden and Harris within the margin of error of each other or Biden more than doubling Harris’ support. Likewise, you could see Sanders in a rather clear second place or in fourth […] Read more »