With states beginning to reopen and politics beginning to heat up, it feels like we’re in the eye of the storm – past the covid-19 hammer and preparing for the election maelstrom to come. CNN political analyst Harry Enten joins the Horse Race to help us make sense of this […] Read more »
Why Trump’s enthusiasm edge over Biden could matter
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in pretty much every single national poll. Yet the same polls find that Trump’s supporters are much more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate than Biden’s supporters are voting for theirs. This split is potentially a good sign for Trump because […] Read more »
Trump, Biden and the Myth of ‘But 2016’
… Just as William Faulkner wrote about how Southerners once daydreamed about the moments before Pickett’s Charge, before Gettysburg turned the tide of the Civil War, some activists seem frozen in the post-midnight hours of Nov. 9, 2016, when Mr. Trump won and time — political time — stopped like […] Read more »
Trump’s Ratings on the Virus Are Sagging. Why Isn’t Biden Surging?
… The race between Mr. Biden and President Trump ought to be basically underway by now, but the horses seem unsure of how to get out of the stable, particularly in the case of Mr. Biden, who has been sheltering in place at home since March. While he has held […] Read more »
Trump is winning on the economy. That may not matter
The US economy is contracting. Jobs have been shed at a record pace during the coronavirus pandemic. Normally, a president would be blamed for the bad economy, and his economic and overall approval ratings would be declining at a rapid pace. Instead, Trump’s more than holding his own on the […] Read more »
Rally (Mostly) ‘Round the (State) Flag
In an existential crisis, citizens frequently unite behind their political leaders. This “rally ‘round the flag” effect is well-documented, especially in the United States, where public support for the president can shoot up dramatically in times of emergency. George W. Bush benefited from a surge in popularity after the September […] Read more »