In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team discusses how public opinion on racism has changed over the past few weeks and how this will affect our politics. FiveThirtyEight The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
One Trump Year May Equal Two Years of Another President
… It is clear that Trump’s numbers have dropped some in recent weeks. The only dispute is by how much—and how far those numbers could drop if things don’t turn around. … I would make the case that what has contributed to the slippage that Trump has seen in recent […] Read more »
Trump has never had a majority of any kind, silent or not
Reeling from a CNN poll showing him trailing former vice president Joe Biden by 14 points, President Trump on Sunday and Monday resuscitated a core argument he made during the 2016 campaign. He’s supported by more than half of the country, Trump insists — but some of those supporters refuse […] Read more »
Comparing National Polls in 2016 and 2020
… Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump in the large majority of national polls in 2016. However, the magnitude of that lead varied considerably over time. This variability may reflect that fact that in an open seat contest like 2016, the choices of voters can be influenced more by the candidates’ […] Read more »
How To Read 2020 Polls Like A Pro
We’re about to enter the thick of general-election season, which means we’re about to get a boatload of polls. Problem is, it can be hard to know which polls to trust or how to make sense of them all. But don’t worry — it doesn’t take an advanced degree in […] Read more »
History says Trump’s low approval rating is unlikely to move
… We’ve still got five months until the general election, which, in theory, is plenty of time for the race for president to change. Indeed, horserace polling has sometimes shifted considerably between this point and Election Day. Presidential approval ratings, however, haven’t historically moved much from June of an election […] Read more »