Not a single major telephone pollster conducted a survey in Georgia ahead of Tuesday’s runoff elections — partly out of exhaustion after the polls missed the mark in November’s general contest, and partly because of how dicey it always is to poll a runoff, when turnout patterns become especially difficult […] Read more »
The Case For Republicans In Georgia vs. The Case For Democrats
The two Senate runoffs in Georgia are tighter than a 35-minute connection at Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport. … These races could go either way. In fact, between the polls, the fundraising numbers, the early-voting data and the November results, both parties can find reasons to be optimistic heading into election […] Read more »
Georgia Senate Runoffs: Paths to Victory for Both Parties
On Tuesday, voters in Georgia will have the chance to dramatically shape the course of the Biden presidency. If both Democrats (Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock) emerge victorious in the state’s Senate runoff elections, Democrats will control the legislative and executive branches of government. But if just one of the […] Read more »
The pollsters are back at work in Georgia. We’d be better off without them.
… Our focus on polling and other horse-race aspects of campaigns contributes to our tendency to conflate elections with sporting events rather than a consideration of competing ideas. Irresponsibly equating campaigns with boxing matches or pennant races — where one participant comes “off the mat” or another “makes up ground” […] Read more »
2000 at last
I have been saying that I’ll have a post about public opinion on the 2000 election, and here it is. The Supreme Court decision ending the recount was issued on December 12 at about 10PM. … On December 14 and 15, ABC News and the Washington Post conducted a poll […] Read more »
How Trump made people care about politics again
Love him or hate him, President Donald Trump made most Americans feel strongly about politics in a way no politician has in our lifetimes. Record numbers of Americans felt strongly favorable or unfavorable toward Trump during his time in office. (The strongly favorable and unfavorable was 71% in a Fox […] Read more »