At this moment, just 39 days into Joe Biden’s presidency, it’s impossible to predict whether he will seek a second term. Biden aides say he won’t create a reelection committee until after the midterms. Even if he passes on another run, Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances at the top prize, […] Read more »
An Interview with Murray Edelman on the History of the Exit Poll
In this column, survey methodologist Murray Edelman, one of the creators of the “Exit Poll,” speaks with Harvard Data Science Review’s Xiao-Li Meng and Liberty Vittert. The invention of political polling provided one of the most visible and high-stakes roles for the use of sampling in the history of statistics. […] Read more »
Are Americans More ‘Pro-Life’ or ‘Pro-Choice’ on Abortion? Question Wording Makes a Difference. So Does Timing.
In a recent article in National Review, Ramesh Ponnuru cites Gallup data suggesting that women are more “pro-life” than “pro-choice.” The article was prompted by a claim from Meghan McCain, TV commentator and daughter of Senator John McCain, that half of American women agree with her “pro-life” stance. In a […] Read more »
What Did Polls Get Right & Wrong in 2020?
Were the polls more accurate than expected this cycle? Why was there a foregone conclusion that they would be “wrong again?” In retrospect, did campaign methodology accurately capture how the voting public felt about the candidates, the economy, the pandemic and lockdowns? Featuring: John Anzalone, ALG Research; Tony Fabrizio, Fabrizio, […] Read more »
Why Was The National Polling Environment So Off In 2020?
Heading into the 2020 election, Democrats were favored to not only capture the presidency but also win back the Senate and retain their sizable majority in the House. Much of that came down to the overall national environment, which appeared to be pretty favorable to Democrats, as they held a […] Read more »
Senators voting to convict Trump haven’t ‘signed an electoral death warrant’
538’s Nate Silver on how much retribution the senators who voted to convict Trump will face. This Week, ABC News Read more »