Democrats crushed Republicans in Tuesday’s California recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Newsom’s overwhelming victory left little doubt that California is a deeply blue state, and a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate like Larry Elder doesn’t come close to fitting the bill for the type of Republican the GOP needs to run […] Read more »
Why a Troubled Polling Industry Whiffed on the California Recall
The political arm of the public-opinion industry famously had a tough election cycle in 2020. Nobody much noticed when polls of primaries went awry after the COVID pandemic struck; we were in unchartered territory when it came to understanding the likelihood to vote or even how to contact voters. But […] Read more »
How Far Can Biden’s Approval Rating Fall?
Democrats are worried about the slide in Joe Biden’s approval rating which began in late July and now has him underwater. There are two questions which need answering: (1) Is this is the bottom for Biden? Or a new baseline? Or does he still have room to fall? (2) How […] Read more »
Biden’s dug a hole for himself, but he keeps digging
Ed Koch, the late colorful mayor of New York, was famous for asking his constituents, “Hey! How’m I doin’?” That’s a question most politicians ought to ask once in a while, never more so than Joe Biden as his summer slide accelerates into a grim September of one crisis after […] Read more »
What the exit polling tells us about the California electorate, and why it might be wrong
The only exit poll from California’s recall election showed Mr. Newsom winning with an unusual coalition. In a departure from nearly every recent election, longstanding racial and ethnic divides between white voters and voters of color seemed to vanish. … But the actual results of the recall election tell a […] Read more »
Biden’s lower approval numbers are the new normal for Dems: Silver
538’s Nate Silver breaks down what President Joe Biden’s approval rating means for his broader agenda. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »