… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »
The Reappearing American Voter
We’re almost at the end of the 2020 campaign season, and there will be plenty to say soon enough about the outcome. But before attention turns to the various winners and losers of this year’s election, it’s worth pausing to recognize something that’s already clear: the national turnout rate is […] Read more »
Final Forecast: Results from Two Methods of Predicting the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• A presidential election forecasting model based on the president’s approval rating, first published at the Crystal Ball in early August, continues to show Joe Biden as a favorite in next week’s presidential election.• An average of current state-level polling produces a very similar Electoral College projection.• These forecasting […] Read more »
These Americans Tried to Listen to One Another. A Year Later, Here’s How They’re Voting.
ONE YEAR AGO, the Americans pictured here — Republicans, Democrats and independents — were among a group of voters feeling pretty good about the state of American democracy. They believed their differences weren’t so vast. They believed they could talk to one another. They thought compromise might even come of […] Read more »
What if Beating Trump Is the Easy Part?
In the short term, should Joe Biden win the election and move into the White House, he would take office with a Democratic Party unified in its opposition to all things Trump. The question is how long would that last before leaders of every liberal interest group circling the new […] Read more »
How Anger Shapes American Politics
Key Points• Politicians increasingly, and deliberately, seek to make voters angry.• Eliciting voters’ anger comes at a cost. When voters are angry, they are more likely to express distrust in the national government. This distrust is problematic because trust in government can facilitate bipartisan cooperation and maintain support for social […] Read more »