On Thursday, the Census Bureau released the 2020 census data for cities, counties, and other geographic subdivisions. Just as with the state-level numbers announced in April, there were some surprises. Many large metropolitan areas grew faster over the past decade than the Bureau had previously projected, with eight of the […] Read more »
Public Opinion on War and Terror: Manipulated or Manipulating?
Leaders, elites, and the media may put ideas on the shelf, but that doesn’t mean people will buy them. And when they do, it may often be best to conclude that the message has struck a responsive chord rather than that the public has been manipulated. As people sort through […] Read more »
Elite party cues increase vaccination intentions among Republicans
Overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic requires motivating the vast majority of Americans to get vaccinated. However, vaccination rates have become politically polarized, and a substantial proportion of Republicans have remained vaccine hesitant for months. Here, we explore how endorsements by party elites affect Republicans’ COVID-19 vaccination intentions and attitudes. In a […] Read more »
Why ‘moderation’ doesn’t guarantee electoral success for Biden and the Democrats
There is a general theory of how politics works in the United States right now that goes something like this: Democrats and Republicans advance policy agendas that are covered in a straightforward manner by the media and broadly digested by voters. Based on their views of these agendas, most voters […] Read more »
The Real Reason Why the Party in Power Struggles in the Midterms
A shorthand explanation for midterm elections has long been that they are “referenda on the incumbent president.” The theory postulates that the party of the White House has lost House seats in 36 out of 39 midterms since the Civil War and Senate seats in 19 out of 26 midterms […] Read more »
Biden’s Honeymoon Is Over, and He Knows It
The first seven months of the Biden presidency have been easy compared with what’s coming down the pike. … As the 2022 and 2024 elections get closer, Biden is in a race to keep public attention on policies and initiatives favorable to the Democratic Party and its candidates against the […] Read more »