Two notable things happened in the recent 2021 elections. First, there was a Republican swing in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere. Second, the polls were off in New Jersey, with the Democrat receiving only about 51% of the two-party vote, after being at about 54% in the polls. A three […] Read more »
The trout in the milk
Political practitioners find it amusing, and mildly threatening, that political scientists are still debating whether campaigns matter. Every consultant has tales to tell prospective clients about how their stratagem, or tactic, or ad saved the day and won the victory everyone else thought impossible. In truth though, much of what […] Read more »
An Excerpt from The Long Red Thread
… The Republican Revolution of 1994 represents a transitional point between more than a half century of Democratic dominance in the House and a more recent period that does not qualify as Republican “dominance” but is certainly more than just a slight political imbalance. In the years since 1994, Republicans […] Read more »
Conservatives Are Happier Than Liberals. Discuss.
Do liberals or conservatives experience higher levels of satisfaction, happiness or meaning in life? Is the left or the right more inclined to intolerance, bigotry or conspiratorial thinking? Are Democrats or Republicans more loyal to family and friends? A wide range of scholars in a variety of disciplines are asking […] Read more »
The Democrats Don’t Appear Doomed, Unless Losing Half the Time Means Doom
… On Friday, the New York Times published a column by liberal journalist Ezra Klein profiling the Democratic political strategist and data analyst David Shor. … We are, of course, currently in a moment of what history tells us is a rare and temporary period of unified Democratic rule, likely […] Read more »
Trump True Believers Have Their Reasons
Just who believes the claim that Donald Trump won in 2020 and that the election was stolen from him? Who are these tens of millions of Americans, and what draws them into this web of delusion? Three sources provided The Times with survey data: the University of Massachusetts-Amherst Poll, P.R.R.I. […] Read more »