Almost certainly, after the July nominating conventions, the Democratic presidential nominee will be heavily favored to win the general election. (The “almost” leaves room for a dark horse candidate to win a contested convention.) That’s despite the fact that if you relied on ordinary forecasting — “fundamental models,” built on […] Read more »
A surprising number of Americans dislike how messy democracy is. They like Trump.
… A surprising number of Americans feel dismissive about such core features of democratic government as deliberation, compromise and decision-making by elected, accountable officials. They believe that governing is (or should be) simple, and best undertaken by a few smart, capable people who are not overtly self-interested and can solve […] Read more »
This research shows that vice presidential candidates actually do win votes in their home states
Although the Democratic and Republican primaries aren’t over, the question of who the presidential nominees will select as running mates is already receiving considerable attention. One key question is whether vice presidential nominees actually help the ticket win voters in the nominees’ home states. And if so, is this advantage […] Read more »
The Mythical Swing Voter
Most surveys conducted during the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign showed large swings in support for the Democratic and Republican candidates, especially before and after the first presidential debate. … We conclude that vote swings in 2012 were mostly sample artifacts and that real swings were quite small. While this account […] Read more »
Do Americans still believe in democracy?
What’s up with democracy in America? Sometimes it seems that American politics grows more polarized and uncivil every month. Has American political culture taken an anti-democratic turn? … How do you measure democracy? Every two years, the AmericasBarometer project monitors whether citizens in North and South America believe their political […] Read more »
So Trump is a populist. When does populism actually win elections?
… In many other democracies parties, not voters, select candidates. In these other democracies, we do not see more radical candidates, like Trump, rise to prominent positions within the party because members of the party fall in line behind party leaders. … The U.S. two-party system has no room for […] Read more »