… For decades, political scientists and economists have concocted statistical models to try to predict presidential elections even before the actual campaigns were under way. Their aim wasn’t merely to pull off the parlor trick of predicting a winner; more important (to them, at least) was figuring out what makes […] Read more »
It’s not just Trump. Voting for populists makes voters angrier and more discontented.
Populist politicians and parties are increasingly winning elections in the developed West. … Many scholars and pundits interpret these parties’ success as an expression of political discontent with the ruling elite. But that’s only one part of the story, as we show in a recent article. Here’s the other part: […] Read more »
Bernie, Hillary, and Historical Memory
… Age–much more than class, race, gender, or even ideology–differentiates pro-Clinton and pro-Sanders voters. … Generations are culturally marked by the critical historical events that occurred when their members were quite young, say, roughly ages 18 to 28. Experiencing the Great Depression or the Vietnam War, for example, during late […] Read more »
Unusual Flavor of G.O.P. Primary Illustrates a Famous Paradox
This year’s Republican primaries could easily shake your faith in democracy. The race whittled a promising field of 17 candidates down to a showdown between the two candidates with the highest unfavorability ratings in national polls. … The failure of democracy to provide a coherent ranking of political hopefuls is […] Read more »
The political scientist who saw Trump’s rise coming
In the summer of 2015, most of the political world still thought Donald Trump’s candidacy was a joke. Norm Ornstein didn’t. … And in an August 2015 piece for the Atlantic titled “Maybe this time really is different,” he made that case. … So here’s his explanation for how he […] Read more »
Explaining Trump’s Success: What We Still Get Wrong
… During Trump’s rallies I made it a point to actually talk to his supporters. This is something the media often had trouble doing, at least as far as I could tell, since at most of these rallies they were penned up at the back of the event, and were […] Read more »