… One of the strongest pieces of evidence we have that Trump is facing a politics of disjunction is that the Republican Party was already in the midst of a civil war when he emerged on the scene. The fight between Tea Party and establishment Republicans eventually led to a […] Read more »
Issue-handling beats leadership: Issues and Leaders model predicts Clinton will defeat Trump
The Issues and Leaders model predicts the national popular two-party vote in US presidential elections from people’s perceptions of the candidates’ issue-handling competence and leadership qualities. In previous elections from 1972 to 2012, the model’s Election Eve forecasts missed the actual vote shares by, on average, little more than one […] Read more »
Why Trump won: It was fundamental!
… As it turned out, however, the political science models – looked at in the aggregate, (which is how I typically made my prediction every four years) – were spot on in 2016. As of today, with votes still coming in, Clinton has won about 50.2% of the popular vote […] Read more »
The Left After Trump
… Trump won because he managed to peel away enough working class white voters while retaining the middle-class and rural Republican base. A classic pattern of support for right-wing populism follows the shape of a V-curve with most support coming from either end of the political spectrum: the relatively deprived […] Read more »
Mistakes were made
Before asking how Donald Trump won the election, it’s necessary to ask how he even stayed close. There were numerous occasions when it seemed that he’d gone too far, and done or said something that would finish him off. The answer to that question can be found in some of […] Read more »
Five key lessons from Donald Trump’s surprising victory
Lesson 1: Early political science forecasts were, on average, correct. In January 2014, I wrote a piece called “The Democrats’ uphill battle to 270 electoral votes.” That piece was predicated on conditions in the country at the time: economic growth, the president’s approval rating and the greater tendency of the […] Read more »