The deepening gender gap in American voting, with men favoring the Republican Party and women favoring the Democrats, is well known, if not well understood. So what explains the presence of millions of men in the Democratic Party and millions of women in the Republican Party? What distinguishes these two […] Read more »
Are Latinos Deserting the Democratic Party? Evidence from the Exit Polls
Key Points• One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida.• However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that […] Read more »
Democrats Are Making Life Too Easy for Republicans
… The historical pattern of midterm contests suggests that a rejection of the party in power is the customary order of business. But the consequences of a Republican takeover of the House or of both branches of Congress are unlikely to be routine. What we can be sure of is […] Read more »
Washington DC may be politically polarized but most Americans are not
… During the 2020 election campaign, the American National Election Study, widely considered the gold standard of election surveys, asked 8,268 randomly selected American citizens about their ideological location on the liberal-conservative spectrum, a question they have posed since 1972. The seven response options ranged from extremely liberal to extremely […] Read more »
Redistricting and Competition in Congressional Elections
Key Points• Based on presidential voting patterns, a much larger proportion of U.S. House districts strongly favor one party and a much smaller proportion are closely divided than 50 years ago.• However, gerrymandering is not the major reason for this trend. Partisan polarization has increased dramatically in U.S. states and […] Read more »
Moderates or extremists?
… Replicating similar results in other research, Stanford’s Andrew Hall found, “When an extremist … wins a ‘coin-flip’ election over a more moderate candidate, the party’s general-election vote share decreases on average by approximately 9–13 percentage points.” While some argue the benefits of moderation have declined in recent years, I […] Read more »