In April 2018, Bright Line Watch conducted its fifth expert survey, and its third public survey, on democracy in the United States. Between April 9 and 22, we surveyed an expert sample of 935 political science faculty at American universities and a nationally representative sample of 2,000 adults. Respondents in […] Read more »
Donald Trump and the Cycles of the Presidency
Given how extraordinary Donald Trump’s nomination and election were, it’s helpful to benchmark how his presidency is going compared to the norm. Republicans typically nominate an establishment figure, often whoever is next in line, and someone who loses the popular vote by more than a percentage point or two usually […] Read more »
Underestimate Trump’s Reelection Odds at Your Own Peril
One might have done better in predicting the 2016 presidential election, or at least in anticipating the very close eventual outcome, by basing a projection of the national popular vote on the findings of several political science models released prior to the election. These models, which were compiled by James […] Read more »
Does Endogenous Partisanship Distort Trump Approval Numbers among Republicans?
Donald Trump often receives high approval marks from members within his own party, a sign many interpret as a forceful demonstration of strong party loyalty in the current age. Moreover, many view this strong base support as a constraint on other Republican elites; despite a tumultuous presidency, elected Republican officials […] Read more »
Why There Is No ‘Liberal Tea Party’
… As the 2018 nomination season gets underway, analysts anticipate a network of insurgent candidates and activists to seek a liberal purification of the Democratic Party, in the same way that Tea Party members took aim at a detested Republican “establishment” via a series of formidable primary challenges and congressional […] Read more »
The populist challenge to liberal democracy
For those who believe in liberal democracy, it is sobering to review the events of the past quarter-century. Twenty-five years ago, liberal democracy was on the march. … Liberal democracy had triumphed, it seemed, not only in practice but also in principle. It was the only legitimate form of government. […] Read more »