Scholars have long debated the strength of voters’ partisan attachments, asking whether party identification plays a near-deterministic role in political decisions. A large literature argues that partisan cues dominate political choice, but other studies show that competing information can rival, and even sometimes outweigh, the effects of partisanship. We reconcile […] Read more »
People don’t vote for what they want. They vote for who they are.
… In research published earlier this year, political scientist Lilliana Mason conducted a national survey that determined where people stood on various hot-button issues: same-sex marriage, abortion, gun control, immigration, the Affordable Care Act, the deficit. Then they were asked how they felt about spending time with liberals or conservatives. […] Read more »
A Labor Day Status Report
We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election Using National Polls and District Information
The Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien team first applied our model in 2006 and were among the first to predict the return of the Democratic majority. That forecast was off by only two seats. Like most others, our model predicted a Republican takeover in 2010, underestimating the GOP swing by about 10 seats. In […] Read more »
Exploring the Incumbency Advantage
It may be the oldest assumption in politics: Incumbents hold an advantage, and the longer they are there, the more powerful they are. It makes inherent sense: The voters know incumbents better, incumbents can wield more power to bring home the bacon, and incumbents are able to raise more cash. […] Read more »
The Latest Poll Results—From 1932
… A fascinating survey conducted for the Herbert Hoover campaign in 1932 revealed Americans’ decision to throw the Republican president out in favor of Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt was not primarily based on the miserable economic conditions. “What loomed larger in 1932 was the issue of Prohibition,” writes political scientist […] Read more »