Some Lessons and Questions After the Kansas Abortion Referendum

Since the Roe v. Wade decision, the typical American’s position has been “abortion should be legally permitted for some reasons but not others.” This remains true even in many conservative-leaning states, like Kansas, where a majority of elected representatives are pro-life. … By increasing the electoral salience of abortion, an […] Read more »

CBS News Battleground Tracker: What do voters in each party want in a candidate?

The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker takes a look at what — and who — would motivate voters to back a candidate. For most Republicans, an endorsement by the former president is a plus for that candidate, and even more so among Republicans who say they “always” vote in Republican […] Read more »

How Republicans could still blow the 2022 midterm elections

Sometimes polling trends meet your expectations. For example, you might expect a president’s approval rating to be low when we’re dealing with high inflation and negative growth in real disposable income per capita. Sometimes, however, trends in public opinion are surprising. Even as President Joe Biden’s approval rating languishes south […] Read more »

Beyond approval numbers: GOP’s midterm prospects aren’t a sure thing

One of the most reliable rules of American politics is that a president’s first-term midterm elections are bad for the president’s party. Since 1950, the president’s party has gained seats in the first midterm only once, in 2002, the first national election after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. […] Read more »