Reassessing the Race for the Senate

Key Points• In an election where Republicans are banking on the environment while Democrats are banking on differences in candidate quality, Republicans are relying on a very inexperienced group of candidates.• Compared to 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate, the party’s non-incumbent candidates are incredibly green.• Democrats, meanwhile, […] Read more »

Trump Has Big Plans for 2025, and He Doesn’t Care Whether You Think He’ll Win

As he contemplates a third straight run for the presidency, Donald Trump has a multimillion-dollar political machine and a network of tax-exempt advocacy groups at his disposal. He also has a plan. The plan is to wrest control of the federal government from what he sees as a policy apparatus […] Read more »

Trump is losing ground in the 2024 primary. Here’s why.

Donald Trump leads in primary polls and is well-liked by his party — but his position is worse than it was a year ago. Surveys show half of Republican voters are considering other candidates. Candidates endorsed by the former president have lost in Georgia, Idaho, Nebraska, North Carolina and South […] Read more »

Why Abortion Is Becoming A Winning Issue For Democrats

On Tuesday, we got our first test of how potent an issue abortion might be for Democrats this fall. In a state that overwhelmingly voted for then-President Donald Trump in 2020, a ballot initiative clarifying that Kansas’s state constitution does in fact protect abortion won by double digits. What’s going […] Read more »

Democrats Might Avoid a Midterm Wipeout

If Democrats avoid the worst outcome in November’s midterm elections, the principal reason will likely be the GOP’s failure to reverse its decline in white-collar suburbs during the Donald Trump era. That’s a clear message from yesterday’s crowded primary calendar, which showed the GOP mostly continuing to nominate Trump-style culture-war […] Read more »

Dems Gain Slightly in Congress Support

The latest Monmouth University Poll finds the Democrats making small gains in preference for Congressional control and the year-long slide in President Joe Biden’s job rating appears to have stabilized. The economy remains a driving force in the midterm elections, but it is not the only issue of importance. Democrats […] Read more »