By helping Democrats pass a landmark $750 billion climate, tax and health care bill, Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona have complicated their own re-election fortunes for 2024. Why it matters: While Democrats have a credible chance to hold onto a narrow Senate majority this […] Read more »
All Pain, Whose Gain? The Surprising Implications of a New Legal Theory for Redistricting
Lots of pixels have been spilled on a legal theory once considered fringe, the Independent State Legislature doctrine. This theory threatens to wreak havoc with centuries of election law. Two upcoming Supreme Court redistricting cases cite this doctrine. Both are brought by Republican-controlled legislatures, so you’d think it would be […] Read more »
Why Liz Cheney is likely on her way to a major defeat
… I’m going to cut right to the chase and say that it will take a small miracle for Cheney for her to win Tuesday’s Republican primary for Wyoming’s lone House seat. Statistically improbable things happen, but Cheney has both the polling and history against her. The truth is that […] Read more »
Betting on a GOP House wave? Look at voters’ education first.
The last few weeks have brought Democrats some good news about the 2022 midterms. There have been better poll numbers and surprising election results in some races, such as this week’s close race in a Minnesota House district that went heavily for Donald Trump in 2020. Democrats still face an […] Read more »
Summer Breeze
If last summer’s theme song for Democrats was “Cruel Summer,” this summer should be “Summer Breeze.” By the end of the summer of 2021, the resurgence of COVID (and subsequent scramble for testing and inconsistent advice from government agencies), the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and rising inflation, […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Race for Congress tightens
Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats about voting in the November election, but the spread has narrowed, according to a new Fox News national survey. If voting today, the survey shows the race tied, as 41% would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 41% the Republican. The […] Read more »