Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump. After months of […] Read more »
Trump is turning the midterms from a referendum into a choice
It’s long been said that midterm elections are all about the current occupant of the White House — a referendum on the incumbent and his party. But do the old rules and assumptions apply as they once did? Because of Donald Trump, they may not this year. … Trump has […] Read more »
Two in five Americans say a civil war is at least somewhat likely in the next decade
New polling by the Economist and YouGov asked Americans about changes in the U.S. political climate, including whether divisions have worsened and what they expect in the future. We find that most Americans believe divisions have gotten worse since the start of 2021 and most expect them to grow in […] Read more »
Flip the Script
Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the […] Read more »
Biden’s Approval Ratings: How Much Do they Matter?
… I expect/hope Biden’s numbers will go up in the wake of lower gas prices and a run of important victories. However, his polling swoon this last year has been driven by two factors. Independent voters souring on his leadership and a drop in Democratic support. In 2021, Biden averaged […] Read more »
Roe fell two months ago. Here’s how much it’s hurting the GOP.
Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure. The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly […] Read more »