In the billionaire-versus-multimillionaire contest for Illinois governor, Democratic challenger J.B. Pritzker leads incumbent Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner by 16 points, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
Explaining an Election, 1984 Edition
Our national fascination with elections has produced entire cottage industries of analysis: What does the election mean for the country’s political establishment, and what brought about its outcome? Those lines of inquiry were especially pronounced following the 2016 election, a contest that featured plenty of storylines—sexism, James Comey, Russian interference, […] Read more »
4 reasons why anti-Trump Latino voters won’t swing the midterms
Latinos make up 12 percent of people eligible to vote in the 2018 midterm elections. Flickr/Erik Hersman, CC BY-SA Steffen W. Schmidt, Iowa State University The Democratic Party shouldn’t count on Latinos swinging many midterm races their way this year. Approximately 27.3 million U.S. Latinos are eligible to vote in […] Read more »
Democrats Must Take Opinion Data Seriously When Proposing New Programs
… Just quoting a poll that says that “a majority of Americans support proposal XYZ” reveals little or nothing about the actual appeal of a Democratic initiative. In past decades conservative think-tanks and their funders invested very substantial sums in public opinion and messaging research before they released major proposals. […] Read more »
Why Even a Blue Wave Could Have Limited Gains
The proper way to view the 2018 midterms might not be as one event, but as two very different elections playing out at once. It’s almost Mars vs. Venus: The Senate hinges on red, rural states where Democrats are on defense. But the House will be decided by swing, suburban […] Read more »
Women voters boost Democrats in battleground districts: CBS News Battleground Tracker
Democrats have a slight edge in the fight for control of the House of Representatives in 2018, bolstered in large part by support from women. In battleground districts that will decide control of the House – most of which are currently held by Republicans – women say they plan to […] Read more »