Swing voters often determine who wins national elections — but they don’t swing for the reasons that much of the media and many politicians imply. … What’s actually going on with swing voters? Based on previous election cycles and scholarly research, here are four ways to think about them: Swing […] Read more »
A spiral of violence and fear is creating angst for many voters ahead of the midterm elections
Armed men in masks and tactical gear have shown up at secure ballot drop boxes. Candidates of both parties have been physically attacked, election workers intimidated. And threats against members of Congress are up tenfold. For many voters, a vicious spiral of violence and fear is creating angst, paranoia and […] Read more »
Democrats catch up to GOP on enthusiasm in final NBC News poll before midterms
The final national NBC News poll of the 2022 midterms finds a highly competitive campaign landscape ahead of Election Day. While Democrats have pulled even with Republicans in enthusiasm, President Joe Biden remains unpopular, and voters express deep dissatisfaction about the state of the country. Forty-eight percent of likely voters […] Read more »
Why 2022 may bring a new peak of political instability
All year, the principal question looming over the 2022 campaign has been whether Democrats could defy political gravity. As we’re nearing the end, the answer appears to be: no, or at least not entirely. Midterm elections have almost always been bad for the party holding the White House, and they […] Read more »
Post-ABC poll: House vote nearly split, GOP has edge on economy and turnout
Republicans hold significant advantages on the bread-and-butter issues of the economy and inflation that are central concerns of this fall’s election, and are poised to claim a majority in the House in Tuesday’s election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll. Voters’ intentions for the House are split about evenly, […] Read more »
Economic discontent fuels GOP hopes as midterms draw to a close
Economic discontent and President Joe Biden’s unpopularity continue to fuel Republican prospects in the closing days of the 2022 midterm election campaign, with the share of Americans saying they’ve gotten worse off financially doubling since Biden took office, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll. Given inflation stubbornly near […] Read more »