… A University of New Hampshire poll finds Sen. Bernie Sanders leading the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary with 26% to former Vice President Joe Biden’s 22%. Sen. Kamala Harris rounds out the top three with 10%. Sen. Elizabeth Warren comes in fourth with 7%. This mostly mirrors the average […] Read more »
How politicians leverage our survival instincts to influence our votes
The term “tribalism” has become ubiquitous in discussions of modern-day political conflicts. It’s a useful metaphor because it’s grounded in historical fact. For most of our species’ history, humans lived in tribes, and there’s evidence that these groups sometimes battled for scarce resources. This ongoing struggle shaped our primitive brains, […] Read more »
Incumbent Problems? The metric used to determine the viability of a primary challenge to a sitting president
Speculation of a Republican primary challenge to President Donald Trump lurks as he prepares for his reelection campaign. In this episode of Poll Hub, we turn a historical eye to incumbent primary challenges and explain why approval rating matters but not in the conventional sense. Then, the number of pets […] Read more »
With Climate Science on the March, an Isolated Trump Hunkers Down
New efforts by President Trump and his staff to question or undermine the established science of climate change have created a widening rift between the White House on one side, and scientific facts, government agencies, and some leading figures in the president’s own party on the other. … Republican pollsters […] Read more »
Democrats’ Two Roads to Beating Trump
Two distinct paths are emerging for Democrats to beat Donald Trump in 2020, each presenting different challenges—and perhaps demanding a different kind of nominee. The paths are through the Rust Belt and Sun Belt battlegrounds, which both parties consider most likely to decide the next presidential contest. New state-level polling […] Read more »
The Deepening ‘Racialization’ of American Politics
… Heading into the 2020 election, President Trump is prepared for the second time in a row to run a racist campaign. He continues, for example, to denigrate, in virulent terms, immigrants from Mexico and Central America. At the same time, Democrats are doubling down on a racially liberal political […] Read more »