… Trump has demonstrated that there is a substantial audience in the evolving Republican electoral coalition for a message that combines open appeals to white racial resentments and unrelenting attacks on “elites” with an undiluted commitment to the traditional goals of economic and social conservatives—from cutting taxes and eliminating environmental […] Read more »
‘On Paper, the Election Is the Democrats’ to Lose’
With more than a year and a half to go before the 2020 elections, Republicans can take comfort in a number of factors. The result of the Mueller investigation has set back Democratic hopes for an easy victory; the history of presidents running for a second term favors incumbents; and […] Read more »
The Five Wings Of The Republican Party
… We don’t have an official definition of Trumpism, but we’re describing it here in terms of four areas where Trump is somewhat distinct from previous Republican presidents: (i) Anti-institutionalism (his attacks on the Justice Department and the media, for example); (ii) Economic protectionism (his wariness about international trade agreements); […] Read more »
When it comes to younger voters, watch the margin of victory
There’s really no question Democrats are going to win younger voters in 2020. But what matters for them is the size of their margin of victory. Republicans haven’t carried 18-to-29-year-olds in an election cycle since 1994, when exit polling showed them besting Democrats in this age group, 51 percent to […] Read more »
Compassionate Democrats and Tough Republicans: How Ideology Shapes Partisan Stereotypes
As partisan polarization has increased over the past decades, so has affective polarization in the mass public. People increasingly dislike their partisan opponents and hold negative stereotypes about their character and motivations. According to prominent theories of partisan identity, these negative stereotypes are merely rationalizations that serve to justify partisan […] Read more »
Will the Mueller Report Change Anyone’s Mind?
The Department of Justice’s summary of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election has a little something for both Democrats and Republicans, depending on how you look at it. … But to fully understand how Americans will absorb any further information revealed in the report, […] Read more »