A couple of weeks ago, I noted that one way to look at the 2020 Democratic primary contest was to think of it as a battle between those candidates who wanted a ‘revolution’ versus those who want to see more of a ‘restoration.’ The leaders of the ‘revolution’ wing, Sens. […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s Path To The Democratic Nomination
Former Vice President Joe Biden announced his candidacy for president on Thursday. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses how he could win the Democratic nomination and also why he might come up short. A core question for his campaign will be whether he runs as a consensus candidate or as […] Read more »
How Joe Biden Could Win The 2020 Democratic Primary
Joe Biden has officially entered the 2020 presidential race. His case to win the 2020 Democratic nomination is fairly simple: As Barack Obama’s two-term vice president, he’s the most familiar brand in the field. He’s ahead in the polls (it’s emphatically not a tie for the lead with Bernie Sanders; […] Read more »
How Does Joe Biden Fit Into a Changing Democratic Party?
When Joe Biden first ran for Senate in 1972, 40 percent of Democrats believed that whites had a right to segregate neighborhoods. Today, he seeks the presidential nomination of a very different Democratic Party, one that is increasingly progressive, diverse and well educated. … Today, the Democratic Party is in […] Read more »
Is the new Democratic Party too woke to nominate Joe Biden?
Joe Biden might seem like the 2020 candidate of anachronism. He’s old in a party that skews young; a white, straight candidate courting an increasingly diverse electorate; an old-school liberal in a party moving to the left; and more conventionally credentialed than hot commodities such as South Bend, Ind., Mayor […] Read more »
The Mueller Report, Partisan Survey Responsiveness, and Interpreting Public Opinion Polls
Political observers often expect major political events to have ramifications for public opinion. The recent release and aftermath of the Mueller Report introduced yet another one of these scenarios. Damaging findings against Donald Trump appeared destined to harm the president’s image. To many, this expectation materialized: in at least a […] Read more »