Our most recent poll of 1,000 likely U.S. voters was conducted between Dec. 9-14, 2022. This poll made news last week, because it differs significantly from several media polls released right before ours. Importantly, the poll shows former President Trump strongly leading the GOP field for 2024. In fact, our […] Read more »
Will Trump Succeed? Assessing his 2022 record and 2024 chances
Key Points• Donald Trump’s bid for a third Republican presidential nomination opens the 2024 presidential election.• The former president achieved only limited victories in the 2022 national and state elections.• But the structure of the Republican party provides him with many institutional advantages in the nomination race. CONTINUED Gerald Pomper, […] Read more »
What to Watch in 2023
Even as we look ahead to the new year, we can be assured that the political media focus will be trained, as it has for the last five years, on Donald Trump—his continuing legal and political troubles, the ‘reckoning’ within the GOP about the former president’s role in the party’s […] Read more »
‘THE central issue’: How the fall of Roe v. Wade shook the 2022 election
… On Election Day, voters in critical states like Michigan and Pennsylvania ranked abortion — not inflation or crime — as the most important issue in the midterms, according to exit polls. The red wave never arrived. Instead, Democrats gained a seat in the Senate and Republicans, badly underperforming expectations, […] Read more »
The 5 ‘known unknowns’ that will define 2024
The powerful evidence for a possible criminal case that the bipartisan January 6, 2021, congressional committee presented against former President Donald Trump on Monday underscores the biggest uncertainty looming over the approaching 2024 presidential campaign. Many factors that will shape the 2024 contest, of course, remain impossible to know almost […] Read more »
Unhappy new year? Poll finds Americans wary of the nation’s course, its leaders and its future ahead of 2023
Americans are braced for an unhappy new year. Two-thirds of respondents in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll say the country has gotten off on the wrong track, and they express little confidence in either political party or any branch of government to effectively address the challenges they see ahead. […] Read more »