In the recent Kentucky gubernatorial election, incumbent Gov. Matt Bevin (R) lost by fewer than 5,200 votes to Attorney Gen. Andy Beshear (D) in a state that President Donald Trump (R) carried by about 30 percentage points in 2016. Although the national parties tried their best to turn the race […] Read more »
The Governors: Party Control Now Near Parity
Key Points • Following the 2019 elections, Republicans retain a narrow 26-24 edge in governorships. • But that’s a big shift from mid-2017, when Democrats held just 15. • Gubernatorial races are likelier to defy federal partisanship than House and Senate races. CONT. Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Party control […] Read more »
What Democrats Need to Know to Win Latinos
By the evidence of the Democratic primary so far, it’s clear that no leading Democratic candidate has any idea of how to engage Latinos. The Latino electorate has always been complex, a reality that Democratic candidates, consultants and election “experts” fail to grasp or simply ignore. … So where could […] Read more »
Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
President Donald Trump recently convened a “Black Voices for Trump” conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: “We’re going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We’ve done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than […] Read more »
The Danger of Elizabeth Warren
… As much as the Warren program has mobilized many Democratic primary voters, polls show that significant numbers of swing voters — wavering Republicans repelled by President Trump and moderate to conservative Democrats — do not share Warren’s appetite for major structural change, preferring incremental change and the repair of […] Read more »
PA-1: Democrats fear a suburban Philly congressional race is their ‘biggest recruiting failure in the country’
… GOP Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Middletown Township survived the blue wave in last year’s midterm elections, which wiped out suburban Republicans across the country and delivered the speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi. And while Democrats see Fitzpatrick as eminently beatable in 2020, there’s a problem: A top-tier challenger has […] Read more »