Congressional elections often are considered a referendum on presidents. Popular presidential candidates produce coattails in presidential election years and can limit voters’ typical desires for partisan balancing in midterms. But the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats and vote share in midterms even with high popularity. We argue that […] Read more »
Which Senate candidates were strongest and weakest in 2022?
Measuring the strength and weakness of candidates is a time-honored tradition in political analysis. But too often it’s too subjective. An Inside Elections metric quantifies the electoral performance of candidates, making it easier to test conventional wisdom and prevailing political narratives. Did underwhelming nominees in key states torpedo GOP efforts […] Read more »
Public Opinion Roots of Election Denialism
Although the hardest dividing line between those who accept the election of Joe Biden as legitimate is partisan, there is still variation within the Republican Party between those who accept the 2020 election and those who do not. Among those who do not accept the outcome, they differ as to […] Read more »
Americans Largely Pessimistic About U.S. Prospects in 2023
Coming off several challenging years, Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas. When offered opposing outcomes on each issue, about eight in 10 U.S. adults think 2023 will be a year […] Read more »
Why the right has already won the House speakership election
No matter how they resolve Tuesday’s vote choosing the next speaker of the House, Republicans appear poised to double down on the hard-edged politics that most swing state voters rejected in last November’s midterm election. Stubborn conservative resistance to House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy has put the party at risk […] Read more »
America’s True Divide: Pluralists vs. Zealots
The most important divide in American politics isn’t red versus blue. It’s civic pluralists versus political zealots. This is the truth no one in Washington acknowledges but Americans must realize if we’re going to recover. … The stupidity of tribalism has made politics primarily about partisan identities, not persuasion or […] Read more »