Key Points • In the last 50 years, American political party leaders lost their historical control of the nominations of presidential candidates. • The reduced power held by these expert politicians contributed to Donald Trump’s nomination in 2016, and Democrats in 2020 came close to making a similar choice. • […] Read more »
In God We Divide
A steady religious realignment has reshaped the white American electorate, turning religious conviction — or its absence — into a clear signal of where voters stand in the culture wars. As mainstream Protestant denominations have declined over the past half century, there has been a hollowing out of the center […] Read more »
Could Biden’s Weakness With Young Voters Hurt Him In The General Election?
One of the defining features of the Democratic primary has been the age divide among voters — those 45 and over have overwhelmingly backed former Vice President Joe Biden, while those under 45 have generally supported Sen. Bernie Sanders. Now that Biden is the likely Democratic nominee, many political observers […] Read more »
How COVID-19 Is — And Isn’t — Changing Politics
According to the latest polling, the spread of COVID-19 has disrupted the daily lives of the vast majority of Americans. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how that broad effect has — and has not — changed partisan politics. They also ask how the pandemic […] Read more »
Yes, Biden is more likely than Sanders to beat Trump. Here’s how we know.
Many Democratic politicians and voters rallied strongly behind Joe Biden both before and after Super Tuesday, aiming to halt what appeared to be Bernie Sanders’s momentum. Many did so because they feared Sanders is too ideologically extreme to beat Donald Trump in November. Were they right? In short, probably so. […] Read more »
Four Reasons to Be Cautious About Trump’s Approval Ratings
Ever since the COVID-19 coronavirus crisis began to accelerate a couple of weeks ago, political obsessives have wondered about the likely effect that it would have on President Trump’s job approval ratings—and, by extension, his chances of re-election in November. … But realistically, it’s far too soon to glean much […] Read more »