Key Points• The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency.• Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help.• We have seven House rating […] Read more »
Trump Reaches Back Into His Old Bag of Populist Tricks
President Trump has chosen his pandemic re-election strategy. He is set on unifying and reinvigorating the groups that were crucial to his 2016 victory: racially resentful whites, evangelical Christians, gun activists, anti-vaxxers and wealthy conservatives. Tying his re-election to the growing anti-lockdown movement, Trump is encouraging a resurgence of what […] Read more »
The fight for the Senate: A pinkie on the scale for Democrats?
Last September, I wrote in this space that small developments had given Democrats “some reason for optimism about next year’s fight for the Senate.” But I also noted the party would “need an upset or two to win control of the chamber next November.” More than seven months later, circumstances […] Read more »
I Ran Stacey Abrams’s Campaign. Black Voters Powered Us to Near Victory.
… Something nearly unthinkable happened in Georgia in 2018. More black voters, more Asian-American/Pacific Island voters and more Latino voters turned out than in the 2016 presidential election. Sure, turnout was up everywhere and at presidential levels in many states. But Georgia was the only state where midterm turnout was […] Read more »
Trump, Head of Government, Leans Into Antigovernment Message
First he was the self-described “wartime president.” Then he trumpeted the “total” authority of the federal government. But in the past few days, President Trump has nurtured protests against state-issued stay-at-home orders aimed at curtailing the spread of the coronavirus. … Now, with Mr. Trump’s poll numbers falling after a […] Read more »
How Trump Turned the Pandemic Into Identity Politics
No one really knows where the arc of history is bending these days, but this weekend we got a good look at where the arc of conservative activism is heading. The death toll in the United States from the coronavirus has now topped 40,000 but, egged on by presidential tweets, […] Read more »