In general, the Republican Party gets between 5 and 10 percent of the Black vote and less than a third of the Hispanic vote nationally. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Clare Malone discusses the series of choices the GOP made, spanning decades, that made it an overwhelmingly […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Now and Later
On this week’s episode of our podcast, Poll Hub, we explain the latest results from our America Now: National Outlook Index. We assess how Americans’ opinions about their health and economic conditions have and have not changed. Plus, we introduce our baseline measurements of Americans’ feelings toward society and government […] Read more »
Trump’s on a losing streak with Republicans
President Donald Trump’s political strategy can be summed up in a simple phrase: It’s all about that base. He has shown little eagerness to reach out to the center, and he’s generally received strong support from Republicans. That’s why it’s perhaps surprising that Republican voters and lawmakers have been disagreeing […] Read more »
Cracks in the Republican Party establishment are getting bigger
Throughout Donald Trump’s chaotic, turbulent, and unconventional presidency the other leaders of the Republican Party have stood by him to a remarkable degree. … Early May saw some small cracks in that support, mostly among the Republican governors who did not side with Trump on re-opening up the economy early. […] Read more »
Trump Wants a Backlash. Can He Whip One Into Shape?
The public response to the demonstrations over the killing of George Floyd is now beginning to take shape more clearly along familiar ideological lines — in ways that are likely to propel politics this year and beyond, dividing left and right as Democrats and Republicans take opposing stands on the […] Read more »
The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere
Key Points• Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf.• Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could become vulnerable if Trump were […] Read more »