Recent national polls show that Joe Biden’s commanding lead has eroded longstanding demographic divisions that have favored Republicans, endangering their hold on a tier of states where the Democratic Party usually has little chance to prevail in federal elections, even Republican strongholds like Kansas or Alaska. … Remarkably, Mr. Trump’s […] Read more »
No, the polls aren’t undersampling Republicans
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a clear advantage in the national polls. Perhaps not wanting to acknowledge Biden’s edge, some Republicans, including in President Donald Trump’s own circle, claim that the polls are oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans. Often, they point to the 2016 exit polls. An in-depth […] Read more »
Republicans And Democrats See COVID-19 Very Differently. Is That Making People Sick?
Americans have changed their behavior in ways that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago. Masks are an essential accessory. Social distancing is the norm. And even as states moved to reopen their economies in May and June, many Americans continued to think it was better for people […] Read more »
Almost 100 Days Out, Democrats Are Favored to Take Back the Senate
With just over 100 days until Election Day, the political climate appears dire for Republicans across the board. President Trump is the decided underdog against former Vice President Joe Biden in our Electoral College ratings and Democrats could end up expanding their House majority. That leaves the Senate as Republicans’ […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: Eight shifts, almost all benefiting Democrats
Key Points• Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing.• At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall.• There are eight rating changes this week: […] Read more »
Republicans remain far less likely than Democrats to view COVID-19 as a major threat to public health
With the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the rise in the United States, Republicans and Democrats remain far apart in their views of the threat to public health posed by the coronavirus outbreak. More than eight-in-ten Democrats and those who lean toward the Democratic Party (85%) say the […] Read more »