… We won’t know until the ballots are counted whether turnout or persuasion was critical in 2020. But with political scientists Seth Hill and Gregory Huber, I’ve released new research that tries to understand the relative influence of each of these approaches in the presidential elections of 2012 and 2016. […] Read more »
The Six Faulty Assumptions on Which the Trump Campaign Rested
Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback, threading the same needle that enabled him to win 30 states with 306 Electoral College votes […] Read more »
Why the 2020s Could Be as Dangerous as the 1850s
If Joe Biden beats Donald Trump decisively next week, this election may be remembered as a hinge point in American history: the moment when a clear majority of voters acknowledged that there’s no turning back from America’s transformation into a nation of kaleidoscopic diversity, a future that doesn’t rely on […] Read more »
Voters Enthusiastic, Anxious as 2020 Campaign Ends
As the 2020 race for president draws to a close, U.S. voters are feeling both enthusiastic about voting and fearful of what the outcome will mean for the country if their candidate loses. Most also agree that the stakes are higher than in previous presidential elections. Against this fraught backdrop, […] Read more »
Implications of the 2020 Election for U.S. Health Policy
This article explores the implications of the 2020 election for the future of health policy in the United States. A substantial body of research has shown that policy decisions made by nationally elected officials in recent years more closely reflect the views of their party’s adherents than they do the […] Read more »
Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up
Key Points• Georgia’s two Senate races move to Toss-up.• They may be the only two races we leave in Toss-up when we release our final election picks on Monday.• The concept of Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest explanation is sometimes the likeliest explanation — might be a […] Read more »