Early 2022 Senate primaries will be a good test of President Donald Trump’s enduring strength within the Republican Party. … While Trump likes to boast about the success of candidates he has endorsed in the past, that won’t guarantee future victories. He is wading into more crowded and competitive races […] Read more »
A Large Field May Save the Day for Cheney, Other Republicans
Discretion is said to be a major part of valor. In the case of an incumbent who has fallen out of favor with his or her party base, they must apply such discretion in their decision whether to run for reelection. In cases of a lone, credible primary challenger, the […] Read more »
Independents, suburban voters among the keys to Biden’s victory over Trump
The 2020 election produced a record number of people voting and the highest percentage turnout in more than a century. It was an election that cost Donald Trump a second term in the White House and handed the Oval Office to Joe Biden. What changed from 2016 to 2020? The […] Read more »
New 2020 voter data: How Biden won, how Trump kept the race close, and what it tells us about the future
As we saw in 2016 and again in 2020, traditional survey research is finding it harder than it once was to assess presidential elections accurately. Pre-election polls systemically misjudge who is likely to vote, and exit polls conducted as voters leave the voting booths get it wrong as well. Now, […] Read more »
America’s partisan fireworks will be hard for anyone to put out
While July Fourth is the holiday that most directly celebrates Americans’ common heritage, this year it comes as their extreme divides underscore how difficult it has become for any president to set a unified direction for the country. … Taken together, these centrifugal pressures call into question not only the […] Read more »
What’s keeping democracy experts up most at night? An overturned election
Congress is just beginning a new investigation into the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, but the movement behind it remains as active as ever. … There’s no legal avenue for Trump to reverse the 2020 results. But a half-dozen scholars who study democracy and election laws told NBC News […] Read more »